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Confirmation Bias: Why You Keep Finding Reasons You Were Right

Behavioral Finance • Beginner Investing • 6 min

What this lesson is about

The bias that makes your own research feel more convincing than it actually is. Because you were never really looking for reasons you might be wrong.

2 parts · a quick check after each · then the quiz

Part 1 of 2

Confirmation bias is when you look for, prefer, and remember information that supports your beliefs, while ignoring evidence that goes against them. It’s sneaky because it doesn’t feel like bias. You think you’re just doing your research and finding validation. The issue is, your starting belief shapes your research. After you own a stock, you’re more likely to click on a positive headline than a negative one. You’ll find a bullish argument convincing and see the bearish one as flawed. You’ll recall the times a similar situation worked out, but forget the times it didn’t.

This becomes much harder to fight in today’s media landscape. Algorithm-driven feeds and online communities that share your views can create a true echo chamber. They show you more of what matches your beliefs instead of a balanced view. So, confirmation bias has more tools at its disposal now than in previous times of financial media.

Why a loss stings twiceThe same amount, won and lost. The curve is not symmetrical.

Quick check

What is confirmation bias?

Part 2 of 2

Insider Angle: The best way to counter this isn’t to aim for perfect neutrality, it’s nearly impossible. Instead, develop this habit: before making any investment decision, seek out the strongest opposing argument you can find. If you’re negative about something, look for the strongest bullish argument. This changes your approach. Instead of letting confirmation bias filter out counter-arguments, you engage directly with the best version of them. This is a more reliable process than just reading whatever pops up in your feed.
Try This: Choose a stock you feel strongly about, whether positively or negatively. Spend 15 minutes looking for the best opposing viewpoint you can find, and write down its strongest point.

Quick check

How might confirmation bias show up practically after someone buys a stock?

Quiz

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