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Why Timing the Market Is Nearly Impossible, and Time in the Market Is What Matters

Your First Investment • Beginner Investing • 7 min

What this lesson is about

Missing just a handful of a decade's best trading days can badly damage long-term returns, and those best days routinely land right when it feels least safe to be invested.

2 parts · a quick check after each · then the quiz

Part 1 of 2

Trying, to, time, the, market, means, predicting, short-term, price, direction., You, need, to, sell, just, before, a, drop, and, buy, back, in, before, the, next, rise., It, sounds, appealing,, but, it’s, tough, to, do, consistently., Even, professional, investors,, with, more, data, and, resources,, struggle, with, this., The, main, issue, is, simple:, you, have, to, be, right, twice., First,, you, need, to, pick, the, exit., Then,, you, have, to, choose, the, re-entry., Just, one, costly, mistake, can, wipe, out, the, gains, from, many, good, calls.

Historical, data, shows, why, missing, even, a, few, of, the, market's, best, trading, days, can, hurt, long-term, returns., A, small, number, of, exceptional, days, often, make, up, a, large, portion, of, the, market’s, total, long-run, gain., These, best, days, don’t, come, during, calm, periods., In, fact,, many, of, the, biggest, rebounds, have, happened, just, after, the, market’s, worst, drops., This, is, when, many, investors, feel, tempted, to, sell.

Buying the same amount every monthA fixed sum buys more when the price is low. Turn the bumpiness up.

Quick check

What does "timing the market" mean, as an investing strategy?

Part 2 of 2

Insider, Angle:, This, is, why, you, often, hear, "time, in, the, market, beats, timing, the, market.", If, you, try, to, avoid, bad, days, by, stepping, out,, you, risk, missing, out, on, the, best, ones., Historically,, the, bad, and, good, days, tend, to, cluster, together, during, volatile, times., So,, an, investor, who, panics, and, sells, during, a, downturn, usually, locks, in, losses, and, misses, the, recovery, that, typically, follows, soon, after.
Try, This:, Look, up, the, S&P, 500's, daily, performance, during, a, notable, volatile, period., The, 2020, COVID, crash, is, a, good, example., See, how, close, together, some, of, the, worst, and, best, days, were,, often, within, the, same, week.

Quick check

What does historical data on the market's single "best days" repeatedly show about missing just a handful of them?

Quiz

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